Imagine this: Novak Djokovic, the tennis legend who's already rewritten the sport's history books, pulling off what could be his most outrageous feat yet by potentially kicking off 2026 as the world No. 3. It's a scenario that's equal parts inspiring and mind-boggling, especially for a 38-year-old who's been battling physical hurdles and choosing his battles wisely. But here's where it gets controversial—could this really be the endgame for the ATP season, or just another chapter in a story that refuses to fade away?
The pinnacle of Djokovic's autumn tennis drama unfolded during his quarterfinal victory against Zizou Bergs at the Shanghai Masters, a moment that might just define his entire year. Picture the scene: Bergs was serving at 5-5, 30-30 in the second set, having just broken Djokovic's serve in the game before. With Shanghai's sweltering heat and humidity pressing down like a heavy blanket, and Djokovic dealing with a string of nagging injuries at his age, wrapping this up in straight sets felt crucial for his energy levels.
Yet, by the third shot, Bergs had Djokovic scrambling wildly to his left after a powerful forehand. Djokovic responded with a desperate defensive lob. Bergs got under it and smashed back an overhead—not his best, but still forceful. Then it happened again. And again. And once more off a forehand. And again off another overhead, which Djokovic awkwardly paddled away in a squat, forcing Bergs to shift right.
Now, Bergs faced a simple short forehand volley—a sitter, as tennis fans call it. Unlike the previous shots, this one had bounced, theoretically making it easier to finish. But of course, he sliced it wide. Point to Djokovic, who instantly had the crowd roaring, poised to break Bergs and serve out the match in the next game.
The man simply refuses to quit. And when he's fully invested, joyful, and not up against the likes of Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, he typically finds a path to victory.
Being Djokovic means drawing on vast experience—having reached the semifinals in 11 of his 14 Shanghai appearances and claiming the title four times. As he shared in his post-match presser, 'It's very difficult to smash here, because once you send the ball really high up in the sky, it’s like it just goes into this dark spot, and it’s really hard to see when you play at night.' He noted that Bergs had missed a crucial overhead on break point earlier in the first set. 'So I felt like he’s not feeling very confident in the overhead.'
And this is the part most people miss—amidst these exhilarating rallies and facing off against the walls that are Sinner and Alcaraz, Djokovic has spent the last year and a half insisting he no longer chases world rankings, points, or the calculations that dictate a player's weekly standing. He was saying this even when he was still racking up Grand Slam titles just a couple of years ago. He's not rearranging his calendar to snag the 10 more events needed to surpass Jimmy Connors' ATP Tour record of 109 wins.
So, how does a player who just wrapped his first tour event since mid-May—who adjusted to 'a new reality' of more losses to lower-ranked opponents in spring— and who hasn't maintained a packed schedule in 2025, stand a real shot at starting next year as No. 3? Djokovic's career is packed with unbelievable milestones: 24 Grand Slam singles crowns, 428 weeks atop the rankings, over 100 singles titles (including that elusive Olympic gold at 37 after chasing it for years). But launching 2026 at No. 3, outpacing younger players by a decade or more in points while competing far less frequently, would rank among his wildest achievements.
He's currently third in the Race to Turin, the prestigious ATP Tour Finals in Italy worth $15 million, a round-robin event for the top eight in singles and doubles, kicking off next month. Qualifying here—beyond major wins like the four Grand Slams and a few key others—is the ultimate prize for most pros. For regulars, it's the cherry on top of an elite year; for newcomers, it caps their best season yet.
Here's the current ATP Tour Race to Turin (as of October 13, 2025):
- Carlos Alcaraz - 11,040 points
- Jannik Sinner - 8,500 points
- Novak Djokovic - 4,580 points
- Alexander Zverev - 4,280 points
- Taylor Fritz - 3,835 points
- Ben Shelton - 3,720 points
- Alex de Minaur - 3,545 points
- Lorenzo Musetti - 3,435 points
- Jack Draper - 2,990 points
- Félix Auger-Aliassime - 2,905 points
Alcaraz and Sinner are miles ahead, leading men's tennis today. For everyone else, despite years of waiting for Djokovic's decline, the rest can't overtake him. He gives them a massive advantage by sitting out tournaments that offer thousands of ranking points. When he does compete outside majors, even Djokovic admits he might not know if he'll be mentally engaged from the first point or motivated to push through the middle.
Yet, the 1990s generation who've waited over a decade for his edge to dull, the rising talents, and every male player except two might end 2025 looking up at this sporting colossus.
At the core of Djokovic's approach—and let's be clear, 'strategy' suggests a deliberate plan he doesn't particularly covet—is recognizing motivation as his strongest tool.
In his third decade as a pro, his motivational fuel is finite. He can't pretend or switch it on demand. It's there or it's not, and without it, defeat follows.
At Shanghai, as he winced and limped past Jaume Munar (even vomiting on court), defeated Bergs, but then succumbed to another injury against qualifier Valentin Vacherot in the semis, it was puzzling how he persisted.
But he intuitively knows when and where that spark might ignite.
The Grand Slams top his list, conveniently offering the highest points. They suit players who master intensity over best-of-five sets—a skill Djokovic excels at better than anyone, with over 450 Grand Slam matches, 37 finals, and 52 semis under his belt. When fit, he can dismantle Alexander Zverev on clay at the French Open, outplay Taylor Fritz on home turf at the U.S. Open, and exploit flaws in diverse opponents, from the flashy Bergs to the persistent Munar, both vanquished in Shanghai.
Djokovic competed in all four majors this year, reaching the semifinals each time—an extraordinary feat matched only by Alcaraz, Sinner, and Zverev. That netted him 2,880 points, surpassing everyone else in those premier events except the top two. That's 60% of his total yearly points.
Sinner was efficient too, though partly due to missing three months on doping suspension. Other contenders built points steadily.
Before Shanghai, his sole significant outing besides majors was the Miami Open in March, where he lost the final to Jakub Menšík, earning 650 points.
Even without any other points, he'd rank 10th. To climb to eighth, he merely entered a few Masters 1000s, gaining first-round byes due to his ranking, and earned points just by appearing. At BNP Paribas, Monte Carlo, and Madrid in March-April, he exited early after lackluster, disinterested play.
He admits he gets like that when not performing.
Worried about form before the French Open, he entered the Geneva Open (an ATP 250, the entry-level tier), won it for his 100th title, and celebrated with a modest smile.
His remaining points came from two Brisbane wins before the Australian Open and a Qatar Open appearance in February, where he lost prematurely to Matteo Berrettini with a hamstring injury from Melbourne. His ties to Qatar motivated him to participate while mobile.
Last year saw similar patterns, with 12 events versus 11 this time, plus a Davis Cup match. A torn meniscus sidelined him in 2024; this year, the hamstring.
To grasp his efficiency, compare to Fritz and Zverev. Both injured, but Fritz played 20 ATP events plus Laver Cup and Davis Cup; Zverev, 21 plus Laver Cup. They're 745 and 300 points behind Djokovic in 2025.
Novak Djokovic's 2025 Season Breakdown:
- Australian Open (Grand Slam): Semifinal - 800 points
- French Open (Grand Slam): Semifinal - 800 points
- Wimbledon (Grand Slam): Semifinal - 800 points
- U.S. Open (Grand Slam): Semifinal - 800 points
- BNP Paribas Open (Masters 1000): Round of 64 - 10 points
- Miami Open (Masters 1000): Final - 650 points
- Monte Carlo Masters (Masters 1000): Round of 32 - 10 points
- Madrid Open (Masters 1000): Round of 64 - 10 points
- Shanghai Masters (Masters 1000): Semifinal - 400 points
- Qatar Open (ATP 500): Round of 32 - 0 points
- Brisbane International (ATP 250): Quarterfinal - 50 points
- Geneva Open (ATP 250): Winner - 250 points
Total: 4,580 points
They might close the gap through European indoor tournaments ending with the Paris Masters 1000, where Zverev defends his title, before the Finals on November 9. Djokovic will likely rest and train.
He plans an Athens 250 tournament owned by his family business, ending just before the Finals, then a quick hop to Turin as the year's No. 3—not for the ranking itself, but for draw positioning to avoid Alcaraz and Sinner in majors as long as possible.
More opportunities await; he's shown no signs of retiring. Another Slam seems improbable, but Shanghai showed potential: Alcaraz injured, Sinner cramping out early. Djokovic was ready to seize it, though his body— the wildcard— couldn't hold up.
Still, he endures.
Will he appear in Turin for one final showdown this season?
Only if the fire burns within.
What do you think—does Djokovic's selective play make him a genius or just lucky? Is it fair that he can stay competitive without a full schedule? Share your thoughts in the comments; I'd love to hear your take!
